Fantasy Baseball: Catch Dickeymania!

Robert Sabo/New York Daily News

R.A. Dickey takes the mound on Sunday night for the Mets against CC Sabathia and the Yankees.

He?s been R.A. Diculous. We?ve been overtaken with Dickeysanity. Bow down to the Dicktator.

The nation has quickly gotten to know, and fallen in love with, R.A. Dickey since his rapid ascension among major league starting pitchers. He?s been a big part of the feelgood Mets, who are remarkably still in contention. Most important of all, he's rewarded his fantasy owners with 11 wins, a 2.00 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP and 103 strikeouts. Those are good enough numbers to make him, according to ESPN's player rater, the most valuable pitcher in all of fantasy baseball thus far.

As crazy as it sounds, what if he isn?t getting enough credit for all of this? At this point, I?m sure almost everyone believes that Dickey?s newfound abilities are ?for real.? Most are saying he?ll be a top-20 starting pitcher option from this point forward, but is that high enough? I say no.

Let?s look at the stats, first. I?ve written quite a few words in this space over the past several weeks on the remarkable increase in Dickey?s strikeout rate, which is now even higher ? all the way up to 9.36 per nine innings. His walk rate is at 1.91. He is second only to Stephen Strasburg in swinging strike rate. Those are all good signs.

I?m not going to pretend that he hasn?t gotten a little lucky at the same time. An 83.8% strand rate coupled with a .246 BABIP is an unlucky set of numbers to hold steady. But even with a regression in those categories, he will still be elite. If I can?t convince you, maybe his 2.55 SIERA will. That estimates his ERA through his walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate, eliminating the effects of park, defense and luck.
Here?s what this all adds up to: R.A. Dickey is a top-five fantasy pitcher for the rest of the way. I put him behind Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee and Matt Cain. That?s it. He is in some pretty elite company now; and he?s ahead of some elite company as well.

I would trade David Price for R.A. Dickey. I would trade Strasburg for R.A. Dickey. I would trade King Felix or Jered Weaver for R.A. Dickey. That?s how serious I am about this guy. The closest for me was Cole Hamels, but when the offer is on the table I?d deal him for Dickey too.

Here?s my thinking. As I stated earlier, I see no reason for Dickey?s performance to change noticeably. I often speak of selling high and buying low, but (as I wrote about Tim Lincecum at the very beginning of the season) there are times when skills change. That has happened with Dickey, which means it?s one of the times in fantasy when we need to dramatically alter our opinion of him.

But Dickey has one more secret weapon over every other pitcher in baseball: health. We don?t have a boatload of evidence to rely upon for knuckleballers, and I?m certainly not a doctor, but if I?m going to bank on one pitcher staying healthy for the rest of the year it?s going to be Dickey. I?ll take the strain of a 77-mph knuckleball over a 94-mph fastball any day of the week. For me, that?s the difference between Hamels and Dickey. I have the fullest confidence that both will be excellent as long as they are on the mound ? but what?s the probability they?ll actually be out there?

USING BABIP
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) may be useful as a quick tool to check, but a low BABIP is far more likely to regress if the line drive rates are normal (19%). Here are some hitters with low BABIPs with a line drive rate of at least 18%.
Player, Pos. BABIP Line Drive %
Eric Hosmer, 1B .221 18%
Brian McCann, C .230 18.4%
Todd Helton, 1B .240 25.5%
Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF .248 19.5%
Jemile Weeks, 2B .254 21.7%

QUESTION OF THE WEEK
Colby Rasmus has started hitting the ball again after his depressing 2011 season when he batted just .225. Has the old Rasmus returned?

Ian Powers: His power numbers may resemble his breakout form from 2010, but I?m still leery of calling Colby Rasmus a fantasy stud based on the last month. It?s definitely encouraging, but his OBP is still a lowly .320. Even though he?s hitting .322? with nine homers over his last 27 games entering Friday, he?s walked just six times (in 123 plate appearances) during that span. In 2010, he reached base at a solid .361 clip. If he continues to hit close to these? numbers over the next month and his walk rate improves, then I?ll be sold, but he still has to face the pitching staffs of the Yankees (10th best MLB ERA entering Friday) 16 times, Orioles (11th best ERA) nine times? and the Rays (sixth best ERA) 10 more times this season. He?s hitting .232 in 69 at-bats against those teams.

Seth Walder: Colby Rasmus? famed decline in 2011 wasn?t fun for his fantasy owners. Depending on whom you believe, the Cardinals staff was tinkering with his swing too much or his father was a nuisance. Regardless of what caused Rasmus to stop hitting, the 2012 version of Rasmus started in the same slump. But recently, he?s been red-hot, including a two-homer game on Tuesday against Milwaukee. To me, he looks like the Colby Rasmus of his sophomore campaign, when he hit .276 with 23 home runs in 464 at bats. His HR/FB ratio is up to 15%, an increase from where he was last year but almost exactly where he was in 2010, which shows it?s a realistic level. In addition, he?s hitting more line drives than ever before, so I?m ready to believe Colby Rasmus is back to form.

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